UK Seafaring Community Could Decline by 40% by 2040, MCG Warns

A new report commissioned by the Maritime Charities Group (MCG) has revealed that the United Kingdom’s seafaring community could shrink by 40% over the next 15 years.

The report suggests the community could fall from more than 500,000 today to around 300,000 by 2040. In a worst-case projection, numbers could plunge 75% to just 131,000.

The study, entitled “Seafarers 2040: Changing UK Demographics and Welfare Needs,” was unveiled on 8th September at Trinity House in London during London International Shipping Week.

Active seafarers are expected to decline by an average of 6%, from roughly 35,000 today to around 33,000 by 2040. Under the report’s most severe scenario, the number could drop to 23,000, eliminating one in three British-trained mariners and triggering a critical crewing shortage at sea.

Survey respondents cited chronic job strains as the primary drivers of the exodus. Two in five mariners said their vessels felt unsafe due to understaffing, while only one in three reported receiving adequate shore leave on contracts that can stretch for months. 

40% of those surveyed complained of insufficient sleep during long voyages, and many highlighted social isolation and onboard bullying as persistent challenges.

The decline poses a direct threat to the UK economy and national security. Seafarers transport 90% of the nation’s traded goods and man Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels that support the Royal Navy. 

They also crew ferries, cruise ships, cargo vessels, workboats and commercial fishing fleets, sectors that collectively contribute £22 billion annually in gross value and support more than 98,000 direct jobs at sea and on shore, as well as 728,000 roles across related industries.

“If seafaring communities start to disappear, it will get harder and harder to restore them and to attract the next generation into vital seafaring careers,” said MCG chair, Tim Slingsby.

“This research is sobering and reveals what many in the UK’s maritime and fishing industries have known for some time – the nature of work at sea is changing. This means that maritime welfare charities need to adapt too,” Impact Director at The Seafarers’ Charity, Tina Barnes, added.

“Not only do charities need to be able to support the complex needs of an older retired generation, but they also need to reflect and respond to the changing needs of a modern generation who perceive themselves not as seafarers, but as part of the hospitality and leisure industry”.

To stem the decline, the MCG urges maritime welfare charities to broaden eligibility criteria, ensuring more seafarers and families can access support. It also calls on policymakers to enforce robust safety and wellbeing standards, such as those enshrined in the Maritime Labour Convention.

With less than 15 years until 2040, the report concludes that the UK must act swiftly. Without a concerted, cross-sector effort to address working conditions, mental health, and career pathways, the nation risks undermining its maritime workforce and compromising the resilience of vital supply chains at a time of intensifying global competition for skilled seafarers.
 

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